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Backward memory will increase in price significantly, and Chinese manufacturers

Currently, AI server systems and applications are the most popular, leading to a significant increase in demand for DDR5 and HBM. As a result, in the global memory market, DDR5 and HBM have become the darlings of the bulk memory market.

AI large models continue to iterate and upgrade, with parameters growing continuously. The larger the parameter scale of the large models, the heavier the computational burden, and AI servers are the core of computational power. In 2023, AI server shipments were nearly 1.2 million units, a year-on-year increase of 38.4%, accounting for 9% of the total server shipments. If this momentum continues, by 2026, it will account for 15% of the market share. More large model parameters require high-capacity, high-speed memory support.

In response to the high-performance requirements of AI servers, the demand for more powerful memory—DDR5—has increased accordingly. Compared to DDR4, DDR5 offers higher speeds, larger capacities, and lower power consumption. The maximum transfer rate of DDR5 memory reaches 6.4Gbps, which is double that of DDR4.

Despite its strong momentum, DDR5 is still in the growth phase and has not yet reached a stage of widespread adoption, with its overall market share still lagging behind DDR4. In the global memory market, there is still a huge demand for DDR4 and DDR3, and in the mainstream markets of PCs, workstations, and data centers, DDR4 occupies the vast majority of the market share. In contrast, the presence of DDR3 seems to be weakening, especially in the past two years, due to the sluggish global chip market, making the market demand for DDR3 less noticeable.

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However, starting from the fourth quarter of 2023, as the application market rebounded, the demand for DDR3 began to rise, and inventory levels dropped. In the first quarter of 2024, related manufacturers began to replenish their inventories, causing the DDR3 market to heat up. Recently, with the growth in demand for network communication and IoT devices, DDR3 has experienced supply shortages. With a significant increase in demand and no increase in memory manufacturers' production capacity, DDR3 has started to increase in price.

In fact, in the fourth quarter of 2023, Samsung, Micron, and SK Hynix began to raise DDR3 prices. In November last year, DDR3 chip prices surged, with contract prices rising by 10% to 15%. In the following two months, prices fluctuated, and in January 2024, the spot average price of 2Gb 128Mx16 1600/1866 DDR3 rose from $0.86 in September of the previous year to a peak of $0.99, an increase of 10.2% compared to September of the previous year.

Entering March 2024, the industry continues to call for an increase in DDR3 prices. Niche memory manufacturer Winbond plans to raise DDR3 prices in the second quarter, with a significant increase of 20%.

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DDR3 is lagging behind DDR4, but it is still useful.With the advancement of technology and applications, mainstream computer memory has transitioned from DDR3 to DDR4. Although these two types of memory are similar in basic functionality, there are significant performance differences, mainly manifested in the following aspects: speed and bandwidth, power consumption, capacity and density, compatibility and upgradeability, and price and cost-effectiveness.

DDR4 memory operates at significantly higher speeds than DDR3. Typical speeds for DDR4 memory range from 2133-3200Mbps, while DDR3 typically operates between 800-2133Mbps. This means that DDR4 can process more data in a shorter amount of time, thereby enhancing system performance.

DDR4 consumes less power than DDR3. DDR4 utilizes more advanced manufacturing processes and optimized designs, allowing it to operate at lower power consumption at the same frequency. This helps to improve the energy efficiency of devices and reduce operational costs.

The individual chip capacity of DDR4 is generally larger than that of DDR3. The mainstream capacity for DDR4 is 4Gb-16Gb, while DDR3 typically ranges from 1Gb-8Gb. This means that DDR4 can support higher total memory capacities, meeting the needs of large applications.

DDR4 has more pins than DDR3. DDR4 uses a FBGA package with 288-320 pins, whereas DDR3 has 240 pins. The increased number of pins allows for higher data transfer rates in DDR4, thus improving performance.

When selecting memory, users should consider their performance needs and hardware compatibility. If the motherboard supports DDR4 and there is a need for higher performance and energy efficiency, DDR4 is the choice. For users with limited budgets or those using older motherboards, DDR3 remains a good option.

Compared to DDR5, DDR3 is even more outdated in terms of speed and bandwidth. The maximum data transfer rate for DDR3 is 2133 Mbps, while DDR5 can reach speeds up to 6400Mbps. DDR5 has a higher bandwidth, enabling it to handle more data simultaneously. DDR5 is more energy-efficient because it employs more advanced manufacturing processes and smarter power management technologies. DDR5 can support higher storage capacities as it can integrate more units within a single chip. DDR5 also has lower latency times.

Overall, DDR5 is faster, more efficient, and more energy-saving than DDR3, and it can support higher storage capacities, but it is also more expensive.

In the ever-changing digital age, the choice of server memory has become increasingly important. The three memory standards of DDR3, DDR4, and DDR5 each have their own characteristics and advantages, playing their respective roles in different application scenarios. To choose the appropriate memory, one should consider performance requirements, application scenarios, budget constraints, and future development directions comprehensively.The Application and Development of DDR3

Currently, DDR3 is primarily utilized in consumer electronic products such as LCD TVs, digital set-top boxes, and media players, as well as in fields like network communications and the Internet of Things, with many of these applications featuring customized chips. Generally, consumer electronic products do not demand high memory capacity, and these products do not pursue high performance or have immediate upgrade needs, such as WiFi routers and home appliances, where DDR3 is the preferred memory choice. DDR3 also has extensive applications in communication infrastructure. Additionally, in the automotive and industrial application sectors, DDR3 maintains a relatively stable market.

In the automotive field, DDR3 can be used for Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS), in-vehicle entertainment, and automotive connectivity, among others. ADAS includes applications like forward-facing cameras, surround view, and sensor fusion, while in-vehicle entertainment encompasses dashboards and internet radio. Although some car manufacturers have switched to the higher-performing DDR4 in the trend of automotive intelligence, many traditional fuel vehicle manufacturers still extensively use DDR3 in in-vehicle audio and video, dashboards, etc., because they prioritize stability and are slower to transition to DDR4.

In some server application scenarios, DDR3 memory still holds value, especially in the following situations: small businesses and office environments, where light-load tasks such as basic office applications and website hosting are concerned, the performance of DDR3 memory is sufficient; low-budget projects, where DDR3 memory is more cost-effective compared to DDR4, making it suitable for projects with limited budgets. However, overall, in the server application field, with the advancement of technology and the evolution of application demands, DDR3 has gradually fallen behind in terms of performance, and DDR4 has taken center stage.

In specific applications, DDR3 needs to be matched with a master control chip. DDR3 is used in conjunction with master control chips (such as MCUs, MPUs, SoCs) to meet the storage needs of these chips, such as the NXP i.MX6S series MCU used for dashboards, which is externally configured with two DRAMs, one LPDDR2 and the other DDR3.

According to estimates, consumer electronics applications account for 79% of the DDR3 market share, making it the largest application sector, with industrial applications at 12% and automotive at 9%.

From the introduction of the DDR3 standard to the year 2010 when its market size exceeded that of DDR2, it took 3 years. From the 2012 introduction of the DDR4 standard by JEDEC to 2018 when DDR4's market size surpassed DDR3, it took 6 years. Overall, the replacement of DDR3 by DDR4 has been relatively slow.

The market size of DDR3 peaked in 2014 at approximately $39.4 billion, shrinking to $12.9 billion by 2020, with DDR3 accounting for about 20% of the overall DRAM market share that year. In 2021, it was 8%, and it remained around 8% in 2022. Currently, the market size for DDR3 memory is about $7 billion. Although the market is gradually shrinking, DDR3 has enduring vitality and is expected to maintain a certain industry position in the foreseeable future.How manufacturers deploy DDR3 Although the three major DRAM manufacturers are reducing the proportion of DDR3 business, Samsung is still the leader in the DDR3 market, with a market share of nearly 40%. However, the company's 1Gb, 2Gb, and 4Gb DDR3 memory has been discontinued. Currently, Samsung provides large-capacity DDR3 products. Micron's share in the DDR3 market has also reached 22%, and SK Hynix is ​​about 4%. Of course, as these three manufacturers further reduce the proportion of DDR3 business, their market share will continue to shrink. In the past few years, Samsung and SK Hynix have been reducing DDR3 production and transferring production capacity to DDR4, DDR5, and CIS image sensors. At present, Samsung has stopped supplying low-capacity DDR3 of 4Gb and below. At present, SK Hynix's business focus is no longer on DDR3, and it can provide 4Gb capacity products. Relatively speaking, Micron's DDR3 and DRR4 material numbers account for a relatively balanced proportion. According to the company's plan, Micron will continue to provide DDR3 products to the market at least until 2026, but will adjust DDR3 production capacity and transfer it to the US factory that mainly produces niche products. With the increase in demand for automotive memory chips, its production capacity will be tilted towards automotive-grade products with higher gross profit margins, reducing the supply of consumer products. Overall, Samsung and SK Hynix are preparing to stop producing DDR3 memory in the future, but have not disclosed a specific timetable. Micron has no plans to stop producing DDR3 and will continue to produce it. At present, in addition to the above three giants, Taiwan manufacturers Nanya and Winbond have a large share of the DDR3 market and are more dependent on this aspect of revenue. Nanya's market share has reached 22%, and Winbond's DDR3 market share is about 5%. While producing DDR3, Nanya is also iterating DDR4, while Winbond has always focused on the DDR3 market. When many major manufacturers in the industry stopped producing DDR3, Winbond said it would continue to produce DDR3 in the future. Judy, director of the Product Marketing Department of Winbond Electronics in China, said: "Samsung, Micron and SK Hynix informed customers early that they would stop supplying DDR3. However, they are still supplying certain customers. For example, Samsung is still supplying DDR3 memory for some CIS sensors. However, in the long run, these manufacturers will withdraw from the DDR3 market. Winbond will continue to produce and provide technical support for DDR3." The OMDIA report mentioned that DDR3 products will still exist until 2028, because the interface of the main control chip for its main application market, such as automobiles and industrial use, is not evolving fast, and DDR3 is a very mature product. Compared with DDR4, with the same process, speed and capacity, the size of DDR3 is 10% smaller than DDR4, and smaller than LPDDR4. Based on this, Winbond believes that at a specific capacity, DDR3 is the most cost-effective option, and many main chip manufacturers will continue to adopt DDR3 in large quantities, which is why Winbond still regards DDR3 as an important business. It is expected that the company will evolve the DDR3 process technology to 16nm in 2025. In mainland China, many chip manufacturers also attach great importance to DDR3 business, such as Changxin Memory, GigaDevice, Beijing Ingenic (ISSI), Dongxin Semiconductor, etc. Relatively speaking, based on DDR3, Changxin Memory is more focused on DDR4, while GigaDevice, Beijing Ingenic, and Dongxin Semiconductor focus on DDR3 and small-capacity DDR4.Beijing Ingenic acquired a relatively comprehensive array of niche DRAM products, including DDR3 and small-capacity DDR4, by acquiring ISSI. Currently, the main product is DDR3, accounting for 44% of the part number. GigaDevice's DDR product capacity covers 2Gb and 4Gb, with two structures of x8 and x16, a data transmission rate of 2133Mbps, a voltage of 1.35/1.5V, and an operating temperature of -40~95 and -40~105 degrees Celsius. The parameters are comparable to those of the three major international giants and Taiwanese manufacturers, mainly in terms of capacity coverage, number of part numbers, downstream applications, and processes. In terms of capacity coverage, GigaDevice's DDR3 capacity is 2Gb and 4Gb, while Taiwanese manufacturers cover 1Gb-4Gb; in terms of the number of material numbers, GigaDevice's DDR3 product number is 24, while Taiwanese manufacturers reach 75; in terms of downstream applications, GigaDevice's DDR3 products are mainly used in commercial and industrial applications, such as network communications, televisions, security monitoring, set-top boxes, smart homes and other fields, while the DDR3 of the three international giants, Taiwanese manufacturers, and Beijing Ingenic is fully covered, with a wider application than GigaDevice; in terms of process technology, the DDR3 products of the three international giants are mainly 20nm process, which is advanced. Dongxin shares is the leading SLC NAND flash memory company in mainland China, and also has some layout in DDR3. In 2015, the company acquired South Korea's Fidelix, with a shareholding ratio of 30.18%, which accelerated Dongxin's DRAM research and development process. At present, Dongxin shares' DDR3 covers 1Gb, 2Gb, 4Gb and other 10 products, mainly used in consumer electronics products. The company's DDR3 product has a 25nm process. In addition to DDR3, Dongxin is also developing LPDDR4 with a 25nm process. 04 Conclusion At a time when DDR4 is popular and DDR5 is extremely popular, DDR3 still maintains its application adaptability. In many embedded applications, DDR3 is still an indispensable memory option. In some server applications that do not require high performance, DDR3 is also a good choice. As Samsung and SK Hynix gradually withdraw from the DDR3 market, there is enough market space for manufacturers in Taiwan and mainland China. In particular, for manufacturers in mainland China, they can replicate the experience and development path of climbing in the NOR Flash market in previous years and strive to take most of the global DDR3 market share as soon as possible. At present, the battle for the DDR3 market will be launched between several major manufacturers in Taiwan and mainland China. In the next few years, product and price competition may be fierce.