Ouyang Minggao, academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences: Responding to 6
Recently, at the China Electric Vehicle Hundred People Forum, Ouyang Minggao, Vice Chairman of the China Electric Vehicle Hundred People Forum and Academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, delivered a speech entitled "The Four Transformations of an Automobile Power Country: Electrification, Intelligence, Low Carbonization, and Globalization - Responding to Various Doubts about New Energy Vehicles". He responded to development strategy issues such as "Electrification is a Western Trap" and "Electric Vehicles are Not New Energy Vehicles". He also explained the doubts such as "Electric Vehicles Have a Higher Fire Risk", "Battery Recycling Pollution", and "Energy Replenishment Issues". Responding to "Electrification is a Western Trap" A large number of people on the Internet say that electrification is a trap set by the West. Ouyang Minggao responded: "This is not true. ” Ten years ago, President Xi issued an instruction that "the development of new energy vehicles is the only way for my country to move from a major automobile country to a new automobile power." The strategy of becoming a powerful automobile country is to develop new energy vehicles. A series of data shows that China has led the electrification revolution. In 2015, China's new energy vehicle production and sales ranked first in the world. This was the first time that China successfully introduced a large-scale high-tech civilian consumer product in the world. In contrast, foreign countries began to transform in 2016. After China's new energy vehicle market share exceeded 1%, various countries began to transform. Seeing that China's new energy vehicle industrialization took the lead and entered the industrial growth stage from the product introduction period, foreign countries began to transform because this development trend is irreversible. Responding to the doubt that fuel vehicles can also drive automatically Regarding intelligence, China is also one of the leading countries in intelligence. Some people say that fuel vehicles can also be driven automatically, so why must electric vehicles be used? Electric vehicles have the inherent advantage of intelligence, and fuel vehicles cannot compete with electric vehicles in terms of automatic driving. Ouyang Minggao said that engine control is very difficult, the accuracy of engine control cannot be compared with motor control, and its response time is also incomparable. At the same time, the market performance is also that the penetration rate of automatic driving of new energy vehicles is much higher than that of fuel vehicles.Responding to the Doubts that Electric Vehicles are not New Energy Vehicles
Ouyang Ming'ao pointed out that China is a global leader in new energy. According to the current electricity structure, electric vehicles can achieve more than 40% carbon emission reduction compared to fuel vehicles throughout their lifecycle. With the current development pace, by 2030, China's installed capacity of wind and photovoltaic power will exceed 30 billion kilowatts, and the electricity generation from non-fossil energy sources will exceed 60%. Electric vehicles will become the main consumers of green electricity, forming the new energy electric vehicles.
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Currently, some European car manufacturers are trying to bypass China's advantage in new energy vehicles by using e-fuel, which is electronically synthesized fuel. In response, Ouyang Ming'ao stated that while e-fuel does not require new infrastructure on the usage end, it necessitates the construction of large-scale carbon capture and utilization facilities on the production end. If carbon dioxide produced by coal chemical processes is used, it is not a carbon-neutral fuel, making e-fuel a fallacy.
An EU report compared and found that the lifecycle efficiency of electric vehicles is 77%-81%; for hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, it is 33%-42%; for diesel engine vehicles, it is 20%-22%; and for gasoline engine vehicles, it is 16%-18%. Based on the energy efficiency comparison of passenger cars powered by renewable energy, electric vehicles are far ahead, offering the best cost-performance ratio.
Responding to the Doubts about the Electronic Safety of New Energy Vehicles
Regarding the safety issues of batteries in new energy vehicles, Ouyang Ming'ao provided a set of data. Data from the National Fire and Rescue Bureau shows that in the first quarter of 2023, there were 18,360 cases of spontaneous combustion in fuel vehicles and 640 in new energy vehicles. Calculated by the rate of fire, fuel vehicles are 18,360/31,771 million = 0.58 per ten thousand, while new energy vehicles are 640/14,452 million = 0.44 per ten thousand.
With the introduction of technologies such as large model early warning, defect detection on battery production lines, and vehicle-to-grid interaction, it is planned that by 2030, the spontaneous combustion rate of electric vehicles will be reduced to 0.1 per ten thousand. Moreover, Ouyang Ming'ao believes that by 2030, all-solid-state batteries will emerge, and the safety of new energy vehicles will reach a new level.
Responding to the Doubts about Battery Recycling and Pollution in New Energy Vehicles
Regarding the recycling and pollution issues of lithium-ion batteries, Ouyang Ming'ao pointed out that lithium batteries have high utilization value, a rich array of recycling technologies, and active innovation. Currently, there are mainly three technological pathways for recycling: pyrometallurgical recycling, hydrometallurgical recycling, and direct recycling, all of which involve energy consumption. The first two involve breaking down the entire battery material into elements, while the more advanced direct recycling preserves the material's crystal structure.
If lithium-ion batteries are not recycled, the energy consumption and carbon emissions in the manufacturing process are relatively high, mainly including the cathode material, assembly, and other three parts. If we use pyrometallurgical recycling to make this battery, it will reduce energy consumption and emissions, but not significantly. If we use hydrometallurgical recycling, carbon emissions can be reduced by 32%, and if direct recycling is used, carbon emissions can be reduced by more than half, according to the current electricity structure. If we follow the electricity structure of 2050, the reduction would be close to 75%, and if green electricity is used entirely, the lifecycle would be nearly zero emissions.Responding to Doubts about Endurance and Energy Recharge
The maximum range of pure electric vehicles can reach 1000 kilometers, and the ultra-fast charging technology that can charge 400 kilometers in 10 minutes has also begun to be industrialized. However, due to cost issues, it is difficult for the mainstream compact passenger cars priced between 70,000 and 100,000 yuan to use this technology.
Ouyang Minggao pointed out that the current diffusion of products is at a market share of 31%-50%, where the main consumers are those who value cost-effectiveness, and Class A cars are the most important category of vehicles at this stage. "Now companies have basically adopted a dual strategy of pure electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles, which I believe is very correct, especially for plug-in hybrids. They will play a decisive role in breaking through the mainstream position of fuel vehicles and capturing the mainstream Class A market, as their performance comprehensively surpasses that of fuel vehicles."
First, electric performance. The pure electric range is getting longer, and plug-in hybrids can now reach over 100 kilometers, which covers our daily commute, while long-distance travel can become a hybrid of oil and electricity.
Second, economic performance. Plug-in hybrids can use dedicated engines, which are much more efficient than general internal combustion engines. Currently, domestic manufacturers generally exceed 40%, approaching 45%, which was unimaginable before. Additionally, the operating points of the engine, plug-in hybrids are concentrated in the high-efficiency area, while fuel vehicles are spread over a wide range. Looking at the fuel consumption per 100 kilometers, the advantage of plug-in hybrids is obvious, reaching 3.8 liters per 100 kilometers.
Third, power performance. The total power of plug-in hybrids is basically over 200 kW, while fuel vehicles are generally around 100 kW. The acceleration from 0 to 100 kilometers per hour, plug-in hybrids average 7.3 seconds, while fuel vehicles are in the 9-second range, showing a clear advantage for plug-in hybrids.
Fourth, reliability. The dual-motor series-parallel configuration widely adopted in China is currently the mainstream configuration for plug-in hybrid vehicles. This configuration was first introduced by Japanese companies in 2015 and 2016. Initially, there were various configurations in China, but now they have all converged into one. The advantage of this configuration is that it can operate in both series and parallel modes. In series mode, it is range-extending, including range extension, but because range extension has higher fuel consumption on highways, it operates in parallel hybrid mode on highways. Therefore, it can both series and parallel, and the transmission mechanism is extremely simple, much simpler than that of fuel vehicles, which significantly reduces the failure rate.
Fifth, price comparison. Ultimately, it comes down to the selling price. Initially, electricity was more expensive than oil, then they became the same price, and now manufacturers are all claiming that electricity is cheaper than oil.
In response to the claim by some fuel vehicles that "oil is stronger than electricity," Ouyang Minggao expressed his lack of understanding, as data shows that plug-in hybrids have stronger power performance, economic performance, and reliability, and are even cheaper in price.
Based on this, he believes that in the next few years, the market share of plug-in hybrids in the Class A compact car market will penetrate on a large scale. He predicts that the market for plug-in hybrids will continue to grow, and in the next few years, it is even possible that plug-in hybrids and pure electric vehicles will each account for half of the market. Of course, after 5-10 years, pure electric vehicles will come back. In the end, pure electric vehicles will still be the mainstay.Ouyang Minggao believes that electrification is divided into three stages: "upper, middle, and lower." Electrification is the first half, intelligence is the middle, and low-carbon is the second half. Regarding the ultimate vision of "low-carbon," Ouyang Minggao has provided three time nodes: 2020, 2024, and 2030. "2020" is the year the country proposed the dual-carbon goals, "2024" is the year the country proposed to promote the high-quality development of new energy with greater intensity; by "2030," China's non-fossil energy power generation will reach 60%, and the true arrival of the new energy revolution will be marked.
Recently, at the China Electric Vehicle Hundred People Forum, Ouyang Minggao, Vice Chairman of the China Electric Vehicle Hundred People Forum and Academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, delivered a speech entitled "The Four Transformations of an Automobile Power Country: Electrification, Intelligence, Low Carbonization, and Globalization - Responding to Various Doubts about New Energy Vehicles". He responded to development strategy issues such as "Electrification is a Western Trap" and "Electric Vehicles are Not New Energy Vehicles". He also explained the doubts such as "Electric Vehicles Have a Higher Fire Risk", "Battery Recycling Pollution", and "Energy Replenishment Issues". Responding to "Electrification is a Western Trap" A large number of people on the Internet say that electrification is a trap set by the West. Ouyang Minggao responded: "This is not true. ” Ten years ago, President Xi issued an instruction that "the development of new energy vehicles is the only way for my country to move from a major automobile country to a new automobile power." The strategy of becoming a powerful automobile country is to develop new energy vehicles. A series of data shows that China has led the electrification revolution. In 2015, China's new energy vehicle production and sales ranked first in the world. This was the first time that China successfully introduced a large-scale high-tech civilian consumer product in the world. In contrast, foreign countries began to transform in 2016. After China's new energy vehicle market share exceeded 1%, various countries began to transform. Seeing that China's new energy vehicle industrialization took the lead and entered the industrial growth stage from the product introduction period, foreign countries began to transform because this development trend is irreversible. Responding to the doubt that fuel vehicles can also drive automatically Regarding intelligence, China is also one of the leading countries in intelligence. Some people say that fuel vehicles can also be driven automatically, so why must electric vehicles be used? Electric vehicles have the inherent advantage of intelligence, and fuel vehicles cannot compete with electric vehicles in terms of automatic driving. Ouyang Minggao said that engine control is very difficult, the accuracy of engine control cannot be compared with motor control, and its response time is also incomparable. At the same time, the market performance is also that the penetration rate of automatic driving of new energy vehicles is much higher than that of fuel vehicles.Responding to the Doubts that Electric Vehicles are not New Energy Vehicles
Ouyang Ming'ao pointed out that China is a global leader in new energy. According to the current electricity structure, electric vehicles can achieve more than 40% carbon emission reduction compared to fuel vehicles throughout their lifecycle. With the current development pace, by 2030, China's installed capacity of wind and photovoltaic power will exceed 30 billion kilowatts, and the electricity generation from non-fossil energy sources will exceed 60%. Electric vehicles will become the main consumers of green electricity, forming the new energy electric vehicles.
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Currently, some European car manufacturers are trying to bypass China's advantage in new energy vehicles by using e-fuel, which is electronically synthesized fuel. In response, Ouyang Ming'ao stated that while e-fuel does not require new infrastructure on the usage end, it necessitates the construction of large-scale carbon capture and utilization facilities on the production end. If carbon dioxide produced by coal chemical processes is used, it is not a carbon-neutral fuel, making e-fuel a fallacy.
An EU report compared and found that the lifecycle efficiency of electric vehicles is 77%-81%; for hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, it is 33%-42%; for diesel engine vehicles, it is 20%-22%; and for gasoline engine vehicles, it is 16%-18%. Based on the energy efficiency comparison of passenger cars powered by renewable energy, electric vehicles are far ahead, offering the best cost-performance ratio.
Responding to the Doubts about the Electronic Safety of New Energy Vehicles
Regarding the safety issues of batteries in new energy vehicles, Ouyang Ming'ao provided a set of data. Data from the National Fire and Rescue Bureau shows that in the first quarter of 2023, there were 18,360 cases of spontaneous combustion in fuel vehicles and 640 in new energy vehicles. Calculated by the rate of fire, fuel vehicles are 18,360/31,771 million = 0.58 per ten thousand, while new energy vehicles are 640/14,452 million = 0.44 per ten thousand.
With the introduction of technologies such as large model early warning, defect detection on battery production lines, and vehicle-to-grid interaction, it is planned that by 2030, the spontaneous combustion rate of electric vehicles will be reduced to 0.1 per ten thousand. Moreover, Ouyang Ming'ao believes that by 2030, all-solid-state batteries will emerge, and the safety of new energy vehicles will reach a new level.
Responding to the Doubts about Battery Recycling and Pollution in New Energy Vehicles
Regarding the recycling and pollution issues of lithium-ion batteries, Ouyang Ming'ao pointed out that lithium batteries have high utilization value, a rich array of recycling technologies, and active innovation. Currently, there are mainly three technological pathways for recycling: pyrometallurgical recycling, hydrometallurgical recycling, and direct recycling, all of which involve energy consumption. The first two involve breaking down the entire battery material into elements, while the more advanced direct recycling preserves the material's crystal structure.
If lithium-ion batteries are not recycled, the energy consumption and carbon emissions in the manufacturing process are relatively high, mainly including the cathode material, assembly, and other three parts. If we use pyrometallurgical recycling to make this battery, it will reduce energy consumption and emissions, but not significantly. If we use hydrometallurgical recycling, carbon emissions can be reduced by 32%, and if direct recycling is used, carbon emissions can be reduced by more than half, according to the current electricity structure. If we follow the electricity structure of 2050, the reduction would be close to 75%, and if green electricity is used entirely, the lifecycle would be nearly zero emissions.Responding to Doubts about Endurance and Energy Recharge
The maximum range of pure electric vehicles can reach 1000 kilometers, and the ultra-fast charging technology that can charge 400 kilometers in 10 minutes has also begun to be industrialized. However, due to cost issues, it is difficult for the mainstream compact passenger cars priced between 70,000 and 100,000 yuan to use this technology.
Ouyang Minggao pointed out that the current diffusion of products is at a market share of 31%-50%, where the main consumers are those who value cost-effectiveness, and Class A cars are the most important category of vehicles at this stage. "Now companies have basically adopted a dual strategy of pure electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles, which I believe is very correct, especially for plug-in hybrids. They will play a decisive role in breaking through the mainstream position of fuel vehicles and capturing the mainstream Class A market, as their performance comprehensively surpasses that of fuel vehicles."
First, electric performance. The pure electric range is getting longer, and plug-in hybrids can now reach over 100 kilometers, which covers our daily commute, while long-distance travel can become a hybrid of oil and electricity.
Second, economic performance. Plug-in hybrids can use dedicated engines, which are much more efficient than general internal combustion engines. Currently, domestic manufacturers generally exceed 40%, approaching 45%, which was unimaginable before. Additionally, the operating points of the engine, plug-in hybrids are concentrated in the high-efficiency area, while fuel vehicles are spread over a wide range. Looking at the fuel consumption per 100 kilometers, the advantage of plug-in hybrids is obvious, reaching 3.8 liters per 100 kilometers.
Third, power performance. The total power of plug-in hybrids is basically over 200 kW, while fuel vehicles are generally around 100 kW. The acceleration from 0 to 100 kilometers per hour, plug-in hybrids average 7.3 seconds, while fuel vehicles are in the 9-second range, showing a clear advantage for plug-in hybrids.
Fourth, reliability. The dual-motor series-parallel configuration widely adopted in China is currently the mainstream configuration for plug-in hybrid vehicles. This configuration was first introduced by Japanese companies in 2015 and 2016. Initially, there were various configurations in China, but now they have all converged into one. The advantage of this configuration is that it can operate in both series and parallel modes. In series mode, it is range-extending, including range extension, but because range extension has higher fuel consumption on highways, it operates in parallel hybrid mode on highways. Therefore, it can both series and parallel, and the transmission mechanism is extremely simple, much simpler than that of fuel vehicles, which significantly reduces the failure rate.
Fifth, price comparison. Ultimately, it comes down to the selling price. Initially, electricity was more expensive than oil, then they became the same price, and now manufacturers are all claiming that electricity is cheaper than oil.
In response to the claim by some fuel vehicles that "oil is stronger than electricity," Ouyang Minggao expressed his lack of understanding, as data shows that plug-in hybrids have stronger power performance, economic performance, and reliability, and are even cheaper in price.
Based on this, he believes that in the next few years, the market share of plug-in hybrids in the Class A compact car market will penetrate on a large scale. He predicts that the market for plug-in hybrids will continue to grow, and in the next few years, it is even possible that plug-in hybrids and pure electric vehicles will each account for half of the market. Of course, after 5-10 years, pure electric vehicles will come back. In the end, pure electric vehicles will still be the mainstay.Ouyang Minggao believes that electrification is divided into three stages: "upper, middle, and lower." Electrification is the first half, intelligence is the middle, and low-carbon is the second half. Regarding the ultimate vision of "low-carbon," Ouyang Minggao has provided three time nodes: 2020, 2024, and 2030. "2020" is the year the country proposed the dual-carbon goals, "2024" is the year the country proposed to promote the high-quality development of new energy with greater intensity; by "2030," China's non-fossil energy power generation will reach 60%, and the true arrival of the new energy revolution will be marked.